replication_20261102/ contains the data and code used for Prediction Arena
and the revised Alpha Arena threshold checks. It is also distributed as
AlphaLuck_replication_supplement_v2.1.0.zip in release v2.1.0.
Prediction Arena includes derived decision/order linkage records, independently indexed Polygon transactions and settlements, explorer extracts, and Binance POL/USDC minute prices used for wallet-paid gas. The primary outcome is the terminal wealth difference with identical external cash flows. Stablecoins are valued at parity; native POL investment returns are excluded. Time-weighted returns are secondary estimates using transaction marks at intermediate dates.
The Envio / moose-code source is Polymarket On-Chain Complete v1, CC BY 4.0:
https://huggingface.co/datasets/moose-code/polymarket-onchain-v1 .
Its pinned revision is 7eeb860dea5b79d5c74f3182b70bd08c85c8f833.
Records are extracted and transformed; source URLs and identifiers are retained.
See the README files within the replication directory for explorer and price
sources. Full operator decision logs are not redistributed or asserted to be
independently verified. Derived order records support the reported linkage.
Alpha Arena includes derived formation thresholds, public exchange-derived panels and funding observations. Funding is aligned between the threshold observation and portfolio formation. Raw organiser snapshots are excluded. Recomputing from derived inputs does not independently verify those source observations or establish the absence of margin transfers. Both joint-stress directions and the prior-only missing-threshold scenarios are sensitivity calculations, not formal bounds.
Machine-specific paths in a small set of funding metadata files have been replaced with relative paths. Original response hashes, source URLs and the numerical inputs are unchanged. Public collectors verify TLS certificates. No private feedback, credentials or user-account exports are included.
The six compact Quantlets retain October input snapshots. Their descriptions
below concern those inputs; the November release supplies the revised margin
calculations. The reconstruction archive remains in reproduction/.
Only derived analytical extracts needed to run the six Quantlets are included. The original source project reconstructs public Alpha Arena competition accounts from Hyperliquid exchange records. This compact publication begins at the derived-data boundary.
| Directory | Included input rows |
|---|---|
| AlphaLuckRiskProfiles | 32 account labels/arms; 32 paired volatility and gross-exposure summaries |
| AlphaLuckRiskReturn | 32 account labels/arms/final returns; 32 initial-capital volatility summaries |
| AlphaLuckPnlAttribution | 32 Season 1.5 account accounting decompositions |
| AlphaLuckDenominatorSensitivity | 32 account-measure rows; 448 account-date rows (32 × 14) |
| AlphaLuckFrozenBenchmark | 32 hourly-funded account endpoints; 224 terminal-position rows (32 × 7) |
| AlphaLuckFormationHour | 10,752 account-hour rows (32 × 336) of frozen, realised and passive-isolated results; 336 hourly endpoint summaries; aggregate reconciliation and liquidation-validation statistics |
The figure Quantlets retain only the columns they use. Shared extracts are duplicated where necessary so each folder can run independently. Provenance JSON in the sensitivity folders records input hashes and the upstream analysis boundary. References to source-project scripts in those records identify provenance; those scripts are not required by, or included in, this compact repository.
The standalone folders contain no raw exchange archive (that is in reproduction/), organiser API response (including the hourly organiser snapshots used upstream for liquidation prices), licensed external-price dataset, manuscript or backup. Account tags identify competition model/arm combinations rather than personal account holders. No new live runs are represented by the sensitivity outputs.
The code licence does not purport to license third-party source records. The included files are authored derived numerical research extracts. Their interpretation is subject to the limitations in each Quantlet's README.
Primary source context: Alpha Arena, Hyperliquid API documentation.