Data and code for Trading versus Holding in a Live Language-Model Competition, by Daniel Traian Pele, Diana Ioana Micu and Victor Rareș Curescu. The current research release is v2.1.0, dated 2 November 2026. This is a research deposit, not journal acceptance.
replication_20261102/ contains the saved inputs,
calculations and results for:
- Prediction Arena's trading-versus-holding comparison, with independently reconciled transactions, external deposits, network fees and settlement evidence;
- formation at 12, 24 and 48 hours, with the same closing date;
- corrected Alpha Arena funding alignment, all 336 formation hours, both joint-stress directions, and the checks using only preceding margin observations.
At first-day formation, holding preserves more terminal wealth for three of the four attributable Prediction Arena accounts. One starts in cash. GLM's sign changes at earlier formation, and settlement-only bounds leave Gemini's sign uncertain. GPT is reported separately because of an unmatched order. These are descriptive comparisons and do not establish a general advantage of holding or persistent model skill.
Saved-data replay needs no credentials or new downloads. With Python 3.11+
and the packages in replication_20261102/requirements.txt installed:
cd replication_20261102/alpha_arena
python src/reproduce_threshold_results.py
python -m unittest discover -s tests
cd ../prediction_arena
python calculate_replication.py
python calculate_twr.py
python formation_sensitivity.py
python -m unittest test_replication.py test_formation_sensitivity.py
python independent_inputs/test_history.pyRead the replication instructions for valuation assumptions, source attribution and the limits of the reconstruction. The release includes a standalone ZIP of this folder. The archive supplements the earlier reconstruction; it does not contain raw organiser snapshots.
reproduction/ retains the public Hyperliquid records,
AI-Trader inputs and the revised numerical tables, figures and Alpha Arena
code. Its README explains the offline checks and which parts of a complete
reconstruction still depend on unavailable organiser archives.
The following six compact Quantlets retain their October inputs and results.
For the revised margin calculations use replication_20261102, not the
older isolated-margin values in AlphaLuckFormationHour.
| Quantlet | Reproduces |
|---|---|
| AlphaLuckRiskProfiles | Initial-capital volatility and gross-exposure profiles across the observed arms |
| AlphaLuckRiskReturn | Model-level and within-arm risk-return associations, recomputed from account data |
| AlphaLuckPnlAttribution | Signed accounting contributions, with timing and execution combined |
| AlphaLuckDenominatorSensitivity | Paired capital-base comparisons, shared-date reweighting and deletion sensitivities |
| AlphaLuckFrozenBenchmark | Aggregation of hourly-funded endpoints and conditional closing-cost and common-price stresses |
| AlphaLuckFormationHour | The frozen-book comparison for every formation hour, to the close and over fixed 1-, 3- and 7-day horizons, under account-wide and passive-isolated margin policies |
Each compact folder remains independently executable. See DATA.md for the boundaries between archived observations and derived numerical inputs.
Cite Pele, Micu and Curescu (2026), AlphaLuck: Trading versus Holding in a Live Language-Model Competition, research data and code, version 2.1.0. Release: https://github.com/QuantLet/AlphaLuck/releases/tag/v2.1.0. Machine-readable metadata are in CITATION.cff.
Code and authored documentation use the MIT licence. The Envio / moose-code Polymarket archive retains CC BY 4.0 attribution; other third-party records retain their source notices. This does not relicense third-party material. Raw organiser snapshots, private feedback and licensed external-price datasets are not added. GitHub publication does not establish indexing in the QuantLet catalogue.